My new article called "Weaponization of Sarsang Reservoir in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict" was published in the Transactions of the International Academy of Science H&E 2020/2021. Vol.6, Innsbruck, SWB (2022). Read the digital version here.
After
decades, there finally is a reason for optimism about the resolution of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Negotiations are advancing, and normalization of
relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan – like reopening transport links and
cooperating on the border – is proceeding even without an agreement on the
thorniest issue dividing the two sides: the fate of Karabakh itself.
The Armenian
government also has made a fundamental shift in its focus of negotiations, away
from territorial claims on Karabakh and toward guaranteeing the rights of the
Armenians of Karabakh to live freely and safely.
How to
reconcile the issues of the territorial integrity of states with the rights of
minorities within those states has long been the focus of international
scholarship on conflict resolution. In successful cases, this is achieved
through some form of autonomy for the minority within the central state.
International law does not envision the
right to self-determination for minorities per se. However, the Helsinki
Final Act (which was used by the OSCE as a legal framework in negotiations led
by the Minsk Group) is the international agreement that came closest to
establishing a concept of internal self-determination that can be converted
into guarantees for minority rights. It envisages “the equal rights of
peoples and their right to self-determination” only within “the relevant norms
of international law, including those relating to the territorial integrity of
States.”
In the case of Armenia and Azerbaijan, however, both sides have been wary of the notion of autonomy for Karabakh Armenians. Armenians don’t trust the Azerbaijani state to respect their rights, even under a regime offering autonomy, and Azerbaijanis fear that autonomy would merely be a stalking horse for Armenians to again pursue separatism.
For years,
Azerbaijan had offered some sort of autonomy to Karabakh Armenians within its
central state. Following the victory in the 2020 war, this offer was
unconditionally revoked. The Karabakh Armenians, meanwhile, have strongly resisted
Yerevan’s gestures toward considering reintegration into Azerbaijan, regardless
of the kind of autonomy they might be granted by the central state.
But what is
the alternative? Armenian irredentism and separatism would only prolong the
conflict, as would a forceful Azerbaijani imposition of its sovereignty over
the territory. In the latter case, even if not a single Karabakh Armenian were
harmed in the process, it would nevertheless likely result in a mass exodus of
the population from their homes. Neither result can lead to real conflict
resolution and a lasting peace.
Still,
autonomy is a viable compromise that can lead to a lasting peace when it is
implemented carefully and properly, with the aim of bringing the two nations
together.
One good example
is the Aland Islands, a Swedish-speaking autonomous region within Finland. That
arrangement celebrated its 101st birthday this year as a successful
means of bringing Swedes and Finns together politically, culturally, in
education and interpersonal relations. Its secret? Carefully thought-out structures
for separating powers between the autonomy and the central government, respect
for minority rights, and security guarantees in the form of demilitarization
(including, no local conscription or military bases) and neutralization (the
autonomy cannot participate in wars neither passively, nor actively) of the
region.
Even more
important, however, is a key mechanism allowing for even small day-to-day
questions about the separation of powers to be resolved. There is a committee
of five lawyers – two from each side and one chair who is accepted by both
sides. The chair also serves as a liaison between the central state and
institutions of autonomy. The committee addresses the issues (usually minor
ones, like how the central post-office and local post-offices should separate
their budgets, or who is responsible for the trash stockpiling and utilization
on mid-level between autonomy and the state, etc.), before they can turn into
major crises, so the two sides work on solutions rather than on accumulating
grievances.
In the case
of Karabakh, some examples from Aland that would represent the minimum
requirements of a workable autonomy would be: a special regime for language
rights (the use of Armenian in schools, media, local government, and
recognition of Armenian as an official regional language), cultural rights
(Armenians would hold property rights on all cultural objects, proceeds from
tourism), exclusive rights to real estate (in local municipalities or
territorially), local control over tax revenues and subsidies from the central
state. All of these rights will have to be a part of an international treaty
guaranteed by regional states and not subject to change without the minority’s
consent.
The same
treaty should guarantee the complete demilitarization and neutralization of
Karabakh: it could not host any military bases, military service for members of
the autonomy cannot be mandatory, and weapons would be restricted to special
units of local police forces.
Such is a
workable minimum (based on Aland Islands experience) that would be required. However,
it should always be possible to negotiate an extension of the political and/or
territorial side of autonomy as well as adjust the regime in accordance with
the needs of the minority and central state. Such questions can be sensitive,
as the local autonomy structures will have to be managed by some kind of its
own local authority.
Furthermore,
with time and the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, there may come a return of Azerbaijani minority to Armenia and vice versa. If
such a process will take place, the establishment of a sister autonomy in Armenia
on the same conditions (whichever they will be at the time) for Azerbaijanis
would only strengthen the reciprocity effect that autonomy produces, bringing
people even closer by caring for each other’s minority and establishing more
points of interdependence. This have also happened in the relations between
Sweden and Finland and Finnish population is the largest minority in Sweden
today. The same logic can be extended even to the contentious issue of
enclaves, eliminating the need to find complex solutions and concentrating
instead on the reestablishment of Armenians and Azerbaijanis in their
homelands.
All of this may sound utopian and unworkable for the Caucasus, where hatred and grievances have built up over decades. But 101 years ago, mistrust also was deep between Swedes and Finns. There have been political disagreements between autonomy and the central state, people in Finland refused to recognize the Swedish language as valid in Finland, people in the Aland Islands mistrustful of all kinds of questions including if Finland treats them as second-class citizens. There have been changes to the autonomy structures twice in the previous century and another revision is coming, adjusting various aspects of the autonomy regime. Still, this arrangement survives as a successful example of how two nations were able to overcome mistrust by working together.
As Armenians and Azerbaijanis are finally trying to build a lasting peace, autonomy can be a powerful tool that brings people together instead of dividing them. It is important to give it a chance.
Kamal Makili-Aliyev
Doctor of Laws
07.06.2022
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